An active storm pattern is setting up over the Valley this week as meteorological winter comes to a close. The area could possibility experience thunderstorms, record breaking temperatures, and winter weather in a matter of five days.

Truly, this week’s weather is likely to be a roller coaster.

Thunderstorms possible Monday

First, we will start with the storm system in the southwest which produced a rare snowfall in the low elevations of the western U.S. coastline.

This storm system will likely produce severe weather in the southern plains Sunday afternoon before pushing into the Valley by tomorrow morning with the threat of rain and thunderstorms. The evolution of the storm system can be viewed on the Storm Team 27 Future Tracker below:

Storm system will affect the Valley tomorrow visualized by the Storm Team 27 Future Tracker

The best chance for a thunderstorm in Youngstown will be in the early afternoon hours when the energy in the atmosphere will be able to produce lightning.

The picture below shows the forecasted thunderstorm energy for Monday around 4 p.m. Any storms that do form will be weak and should stay below severe limits.

Forecast thunderstorm energy for Monday around 4 p.m.

Another story Monday is the possible heavy rainfall. The rainfall totals for Monday morning through Tuesday will likely be between 0.5-1 inch. Any location that experiences a thunderstorm could receive a little more.

Future rainfall through 9 a.m. Tuesday morning.

Record high temperatures again?

There is the potential for the temperatures on Wednesday to approach record highs once again in between storm systems this week. The daily record high for March 1 is 68°F set back in 1939. Right now, the forecast high on Wednesday is expected to be in the mid 60s which would be close to tying the record.

Forecast temperature for the Valley on Wednesday

Wintry end to the week?

There is the potential for a winter storm system to affect the Valley this week.

DISCLAIMER: The storm system forecast for the end of this week is currently over 4 days away. Therefore, the current track, timing and forecast impacts for the Valley will change in the coming days.

The point of this discussion is to inform you of the potential for wintry weather at the end of the week. Currently, the procedure is to try and nail down the large scale factors like storm track. The time for forecasting specifics will arrive later on this week as confidence continues to improve.

Currently, the forecast models have honed in on two potential tracks for the upcoming storm system at the end of the week.

One of storm tracks would have the storm system move from Texas, through the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid Atlantic. This would place the Valley on the colder side of the storm and promote a better chance of wintry precipitation.

The first track potential showing a more southerly storm and a better chance at wintry precipitation in the Valley.

The other potential storm track would take the low pressure system right through Ohio which would place the Valley in the warmer part of the storm and would likely result in mainly rain for the area.

The second track potential which would result in more rain for the Valley.

It should be noted that the majority of storm systems this winter have taken the more northerly track which has minimalized the wintry precipitation in most storm systems.

We will continue to update you on the changes to the storm track in the Storm Team 27 Weather Center.