The first nine days of 2023 have been warmer than average across the Valley. The first five days featured temperatures that were 10+ degrees above average. The highs on Jan. 3 and 4 flirted with record highs at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport.
The last few days have featured a cool down, but only one of those days (Saturday, Jan. 7) featured an average high temperature of 34°F. Through the first nine days of January, the average high temperature has been 45.2°F, which is about 11 degrees above average for this time of year.
Will this warm weather last for the rest of the month or will old man winter make another appearance?
Thankfully, we do not have to look too far for above-average temperatures. The high temperature today at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport is already 36°F, which is above average. In fact, many places across the United States are experiencing above-average temperatures. The 70-degree temperature value has spread well into the parts of the southeastern United States.
The next few days will feature a warm-up with the high temperatures on Thursday reaching into the low 50s. The warmer weather will be accompanied by rain showers, unfortunately, and there will be a brief cool down this weekend thanks to a cold front.
This brief cold shot will not last for long as more unsettled weather moves into the western United States. Traditionally, when there are strong storm systems in the western United States, warmer air is able to move into the eastern United States with relative ease.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows this with high probabilities of above-average temperatures across most of the U.S. with the exception being in the west.
Notice in the above map that Youngstown has an 80% probability of seeing above-average temperatures through the 6-10 day period.
These above-average temperatures will likely extend beyond the 10-day range as more strong storm systems are forecasted to arrive on the West Coast. In fact, the 8-14 day temperature outlook also has Youngstown in the 80% probability of above-average temperatures.
Notice once again in the above map that the southwestern United States is forecasted to experience below-average temperatures due to the many storms that will make landfall on the West Coast.
There is a signal that below-average temperatures could make their way to the Valley by the end of the month, but the confidence is low when forecasting more than 14 days in advance.