It is hard to believe that January of 2023 has almost come and gone. The majority of January was quite warm and currently ranks as the fourth warmest in average temperature of all time (this will likely slide down a few spots in the coming days).

Despite the mild weather this winter, many of you are eagerly awaiting the warmer temperatures and the return to outdoor temperatures.

However, February can be a brutal month in the Valley with cold temperatures and snow.

What conditions are we expecting for this February?

February’s first few days will feature cold temperatures

Sunday, a cold front will push through the Valley which will usher in some of the coldest air that we have experienced in a couple of weeks.

There will be multiple rounds of the cold air that will last through at least the first few days in February. There will be a couple of days towards the end of next week with highs in the mid 20s and lows in the teens and possibly the single digits.

The forecast high temperatures for the next seven days are shown below:

Forecast high temperature over the next seven days

The normal high temperature for this time of year is 35°F in Youngstown, so there could be multiple days this week where the high temperature is ten degrees below average.

February will start on a dry note

Due to the warmer temperatures, January has featured numerous days with rain and snow. In fact, January 2023 is currently 1.61″ of rain above normal for this time of year with more rainfall expected today.

The colder temperatures will bring a break to the precipitation. In fact, over the next seven days, most locations will only receive around 0.25″ of precipitation. Most of that will occur in the next 24 hours.

Future rainfall for the next seven days

February is forecast to be warm and wet

Despite the cold and dry start to the month, the weather pattern that has dominated winter is expected to make a return in February. Once again, February is forecast to feature above average temperatures and above average precipitation this year.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly forecast throughout the year. Below is the forecast for temperature and precipitation across the United States:

February temperature forecast

Monthly temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the month of February.

February precipitation outlook

Monthly precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the month of February.

This weather pattern should look similar to you, because this winter has featured above average temperatures in the eastern United States and below average temperatures in the western United States.

The precipitation outlook does look a little different with more precipitation expected in the Pacific Northwest. Also note that the Valley is located in 40-50% probability of above average precipitation.

Granted, the signal for above average temperatures in February is not as strong as it was in January. This same map for January was showing a 50-60% probability of warmer than average temperatures while the February map is only showing a 30-40% probability.

These maps do not guarantee that weather conditions will be warm and wet for February, but they are general outlooks for the upcoming weather pattern. It will be interesting to see how the weather plays out this month.