(WKBN) – The official start of astronomical fall is on Saturday, September 23.
Last Friday, September 15, started off with fall-like temperatures. The official low temperature at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport was 39°F, which was the coldest since May 18!
Those chilly temperatures might have you thinking that fall will be below average. What exactly is the fall forecast?
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a fall forecast each year for both temperature and precipitation. First, here is the temperature outlook:
Despite the below-average temperatures lately, the CPC is forecasting a small probability of above-average temperatures in the Valley. Officially, the probability of above-average temperatures is between 33%-40%, which is a small chance.
Elsewhere, the temperature is forecast to be well above average in New England, the desert Southwest and northern Alaska.
The CPC is forecasting an equal probability of above-average or below-average precipitation in the Valley. Meanwhile, above-average precipitation is expected in parts of the southeastern United States and Alaska.
Otherwise, there are a couple of areas of below-average temperatures forecast in the desert Southwest, the northern Great Lakes and the Northwest.
The average high temperature in Youngstown drops from 74.3°F in the month of September to 49.6°F during the month of November. The end of September really does mark a sharp decline in temperatures in this part of the United States.
The precipitation graph is somewhat different. The month of September is the third wettest month at the airport, however, the decline in precipitation shows up in October and November.
Time will tell what fall holds for the Valley. Our meteorologists in the Storm Team 27 Weather Center will continue to keep you posted.