There is no doubt that the weather conditions across the Valley have been dry for the past month.

May 2023 was the sixth driest May of all time with only 1.3″ of precipitation recorded at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport. There has now been 13 days in a row with no recorded rainfall and that streak is likely to extend further into next week.

Top six driest Mays of all time at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport.

Also a change from last week, the airport in now officially in a precipitation deficit for 2023. Currently, the rainfall deficit is at 0.59″ but this is certainly going to increase as we head into next week.

The abnormally dry conditions has prompted the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to highlight a large portion of the Midwest, including the Valley, for the risk of rapid onset drought. Rain chances through the next two weeks are low which prompted the CPC to issue this statement:

“… many areas in the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic are now experiencing abnormal dryness based on the latest drought monitor, with little indication for improvement given the normal to below-normal precipitation favored through mid-June. Therefore, the rapid onset drought risk remains highlighted for portions of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valleys, the Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes.”

CPC outlook for the possibility of rapid onset drought for the next two weeks.

How does the current dry weather streak compare to the driest periods in Youngstown’s past?

The longest period without precipitation at the airport is 25 days which has occurred twice in history (1922 and 1963). Our current dry streak would need to extend to 20 days to enter the top-10.

Top 10 driest periods in Youngstown history.

Unfortunately, the dry weather is forecast to last even longer. The future rainfall map below shows that there will be little to no precipitation across the area for at least the next week.

Storm Team 27 Future Rainfall map.

One detail that will help the dry conditions is the fact that high temperatures this week will not be as warm compared to last week. A cooler airmass will move into the area during the middle part of the work week and there will even be a few days of below average temperatures.

Here are the high temperatures for the next week.

I hope you have that pool ready, because there are going to be many great pool days coming up!