The storm system and severe weather risk this story refers to has passed. This story was for the storm system impacting the area Wednesday, September 21st, 2022. You can check the current forecast for the Youngstown area at this link.
Wednesday early evening update on severe threat
The risk for strong storms will remain in the forecast this evening. We are tracking a cold front approaching the Valley that has been trending a little slower on the arrival time. The latest data shows more storms firing after sunset. Our lack of afternoon storms will leave some energy in the atmosphere to fuel additional storms as a cold front sweeps through late this evening into early tonight.
What has changed with the severe threat?
Storm Timing — Mid-afternoon storm development struggled as temperatures were not enough to overcome a layer of warm air in the atmosphere above. We had one stronger storm track across Trumbull county but it weakened as it encountered more stable air working into the eastern part of the county. The lack of widespread storms will leave some energy in the atmosphere this evening into early tonight. As the cold front approaches, additional storms developing between 8PM-2AM are possible. While it had looked like the severe threat would end around sunset, we can no longer rule out an isolated stronger storm into the early part of the night. The risk for one of those storms being strong will be much lower compared to the afternoon. That said, there is a low risk for a gusty storm.
Severe Variables — The set-up for the early afternoon included an elevated chance for some rotating thunderstorms working through the region. The chance for rotating storms hasn’t completely faded, but the risk is looking much lower for the remainder of our Wednesday. The primary concerns moving forward would be a few storms capable of severe wind gusts or pockets of moderate to large hail. The chance for strong storms will end early overnight as cooler air arrives and dew points begin dropping.
What comes after this storm system?
There will be a major flip in how it feels for the second half of the week. The cold front sweeping through the area this evening will usher in much cooler weather for the end of the week. In fact, Autumn officially begins Thursday so this cool-down will be timely. Highs will drop to the 60s for several days.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows that the cooler pattern is likely to continue through the rest of the month. Our area is under a big, blue bulls-eye for the outlook valid during the September 26-30 time frame. That indicates a higher likelihood of below normal temperatures during that stretch of days. The normal high during that stretch of days is between 69° and 70°.