How common are double-digit snowfalls late-winter?

Our snowfall deficits have been growing and snow lovers have been grumbling. For weeks, we’ve been dealing with overall milder temperatures and little snowfall. As the final month of meteorological winter (December through February) is underway, it is looking more and more likely we end this winter season below normal snowfall. The question is, how far below normal? And, can we make up lost ground? Just how common are big snowfalls in our area for the remainder of the snowfall season?

Where does snowfall stand at the Youngstown area as of Feb. 3?

The first measurable snow this season occurred in October. But snow has not been overly common since then. Of the last 126 days, the duration between Oct. 1 through Feb. 3, only 24 days have had measurable snow of at least 0.1″ or greater. That means only 19% of the last 126 days have had measurable snow.

As of the 5 p.m. climate report update on Feb. 3 from the National Weather Service in Cleveland, total snowfall for the 2022-2023 season at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport is at 18.0″. The normal value to this point in the winter is 41.3″ so we are currently 23.3″ below normal.

The normal annual snowfall at the airport for a winter season totals 67.8″. As of Feb. 3, we are just under 50″ below the normal seasonal snowfall. We still have several weeks to go where snowfall is common, but the pattern would need to trend colder and active for us to make up that much ground with the time left in the season.

Is the 2022-2023 winter the least snowy on record?

If we didn’t pick up any additional snowfall the rest of this winter, this would be the least snowy winter on record. Obviously, that is highly unlikely given the time left in the snow season. As of Feb. 3, we need 15.8″ or greater to stay off the list of the top 10 least snowy winters on record.

The least snowy winter on record is the 1941 to 1942 winter season with 18.7″ total snow. Our 10th least snowy season is the 1994 to 1995 winter season with 33.7″ total snow at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport. Below is the list of the top 10 least snowy winter seasons.

How much snow has fallen each month of the 2022-2023 snowfall season?

The first snow that fell in October came in one day but was enough to make it our 10th snowiest October on record. That is the only month where total snow during the month was above normal. The slideshow below breaks down the total snowfall each month so far of the 2022-2023 winter season.

Can we make up for lost ground? How common are big snows for the remainder of the winter season?

We only need just under 16″ of snowfall to keep us out of the top 10 least snowy seasons on record, a very doable total. But to end this season closer to the normal snowfall, we’d need nearly 50″ of snow between now and the warmer months. The normal annual snowfall in our area is 67.8″ and we are currently at 18.0″. It would take a lot of stretches of below-normal temperatures and a very active pattern to make up that much ground. It is looking very likely that we’ll end this season below normal. If we only received normal snowfall each of the next few months, we’d still end the season more than 20″ below normal.

That said, it doesn’t mean we are done with big and impactful snows. The top 10 highest single-day snowfalls in February are all between 6″ to 10″. All of the highest one-day snowfalls in March are greater than 7″. The greatest one-day snowfall in March was 14.7″ during the blizzard of 1993. That is actually our third-highest one-day snowfall on record for any month! The chance for big snows starts going down in April. There have only been two instances of single-day snowfalls greater than 1″ in May.

Below is a look at the top 10 highest one-day snowfall totals at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport for the months of February, March, April and May.