The last six updates to the U.S. Drought Monitor have included part of our viewing area in the pre-drought classification D0, or “abnormally dry.” The updated maps are released weekly, on Thursdays, showing areas experiencing drought conditions or close to entering drought conditions. The Aug. 11 update still has parts of the viewing area classified as “abnormally dry.” We will dive deeper into the rainfall stats below, but let’s start with this week’s drought monitor update for the Youngstown area.

What has changed in the latest update to the U.S. Drought Monitor for the Youngstown area?

To put it simply, almost nothing has changed between the U.S. Drought Monitor update this week compared to last week in the Youngstown area. The reason it is “almost” nothing is there was technically a 0.08% decrease in areas classified as “abnormally dry” in Trumbull County. Below is a side-by-side comparison of this week’s outlook compared to last week. Slide the bar to the right to see last week’s outlook and to the left to see this week.

Side-by-side comparison of this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor report with last week’s report. Slide the bar to the right to see the August 4th update and to the left to see the August 11th update.

While there was an ever-so-subtle drop in areas considered “abnormally dry” in Trumbull County, there was no chance for the rest of our area. Below is a look at the percentage of each of our counties considered “abnormally dry” in the past five outlooks from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

LOCATION AUGUST 11 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” AUGUST 4 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 28 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 21 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 14 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY”
TRUMBULL COUNTY77.63%77.71%79.85%79.85%84.72%
MAHONING COUNTY84.60%84.60%70.40%71.90%77.23%
COLUMBIANA COUNTY43.74%43.74%30.98%39.12%44.03%
MERCER COUNTY3.15%3.15%0.07%0.07%0.66%
LAWRENCE COUNTY0%0%0%0%0%
Percent of each county considered “abnormally dry,” the precursor to a “moderate drought” from the US Drought Monitor, in each of the last five updates to the map.

How much rain has fallen over the last week in the Youngstown area?

At our official climate reporting station, the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport in Vienna, rainfall totaled 0.64″ over the last seven days. That isn’t an extreme amount but parts of our area did experience high rainfall totals causing flash flooding.

Radar estimates of rainfall as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 11 for the Youngstown area over the last 7 days, valid for the dates Aug. 4 - Aug. 11.
Radar estimates of rainfall as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 11 for the Youngstown area over the last 7 days, valid for the dates Aug. 4 – Aug. 11.

Rainfall totals of greater than 5″ were estimated to fall across parts of Lawrence and Mercer counties. That heavy rain even took place on Friday, August 5, 2022. Other areas receiving soaking rains at times include southern Columbiana County, western Mahoning County, and northwestern Trumbull County. On the same day as the flash flooding in Lawrence County, part of Trumbull County was included in a flood advisory with heavy rain around the Mesopotamia area.

What impacts has rainfall over the last week had on rainfall deficits in the Youngstown area?

We continue to see improvements across most of the area after the peak of the dry conditions in mid-July. As of Thursday afternoon, Aug. 11, estimated deficits over the last 30 days continue dropping for much of the area. Fewer areas are reporting a rainfall deficit. Among areas needing rain the most, we continue to see dry conditions in southwestern and eastern Columbiana County, northern and central Mahoning County, and northern Mercer County. Below is a slideshow of rainfall deficit estimates across the area over the last few weeks.

Another way to look at this data is the percentage of normal rainfall. The image below is showing you areas that have seen above or below the average rainfall for the last 30 days. Areas receiving average rain would be right at 100%. Anything above 100% is more than average. Areas below 100% have seen below the average rainfall over the last 30 days. This map has also improved over the last week.

Will the Youngstown area see more rain and more improvements in the coming days?

While the end of the workweek and the start of the weekend are looking dry, we will see rain chances creeping back up at the end of the weekend and into early next week.

Youngstown area chance of rain over the next five days, valid for Friday, August 12th - Tuesday, August 16th
Youngstown area chance of rain over the next five days, valid for Friday, August 12th – Tuesday, August 16th

Looking ahead to Thursday’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Aug. 17 – Aug. 21, our area is in the “equal chances” category. That means there isn’t a statistical probability in either direction and we have an equal chance of seeing at, above, or below average precipitation during that timeframe.

6 to 10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Wednesday, Aug. 17 - Sunday, Aug. 21
6 to 10-day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Wednesday, Aug. 17 – Sunday, Aug. 21

The 8-14 day climate outlook has a slight leaning toward above-average precipitation. The dates the outlook is valid for are Aug. 19 – Aug. 25. That takes us into the end of the month and the pattern is looking more active in the long-range data. The climate Prediction Center places the Youngstown area in the 33% chance of above-average precipitation for that stretch of days. For a look at what to plan for over the next week, check the Storm Team 27 Youngstown area 7-day forecast.

8 to 14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Friday, Aug. 19 - Thursday, Aug. 25
8 to 14-day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Friday, Aug. 19 – Thursday, Aug. 25