(WKBN) – For the ninth week in a row, parts of our viewing area are outlined as experiencing dry conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Parts of the area remain in the pre-drought classification D0, or “abnormally dry.” The updated maps are released weekly, on Thursdays, showing areas experiencing drought conditions or close to entering drought conditions. The August 25 update is not much different from previous weeks as rainfall deficits continue expanding, even after some recent rainfall. We will dive deeper into the rainfall stats below, but let’s start with this week’s drought monitor update for the Youngstown area.

What has changed in the August 25 update to the U.S. Drought Monitor for the Youngstown area?

While there have been some changes in deficits and where the area stands compared to normal precipitation, the drought outlook remains unchanged. There has been no movement in the percentage of each of our counties under the pre-drought classification “abnormally dry” for the last three weeks. Below is a side-by-side comparison of this week’s status compared to last week. Slide the bar to the right to see last week’s outlook and to the left to see this week’s.

Side-by-side comparison of this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor report with last week’s report. Slide the bar to the right to see the August 18 update and to the left to see the August 25 update. The only changes are subtle decreases just south of Akron, Ohio and Kent, Ohio.

Three weeks ago there was an ever-so-subtle drop in the area considered “abnormally dry” in Trumbull County. That was the last change to the drought monitor’s status in our viewing area. All of our other counties have seen no change in the area of the county considered “abnormally dry” in the last four updates. Below is a look at the percentage of each of our counties considered “abnormally dry” over the past nine outlooks from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

LOCATION AUGUST 25 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” AUGUST 18 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” AUGUST 11 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” AUGUST 4 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 28 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 21 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 14 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JULY 7 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY” JUNE 30 % OF COUNTY CONSIDERED “ABNORMALLY DRY”
TRUMBULL COUNTY 77.63% 77.63% 77.63%77.71%79.85%79.85%84.72%80.32%66.89%
MAHONING COUNTY 84.60% 84.60% 84.60%84.60%70.40%71.90%77.23%72.4%66.77%
COLUMBIANA COUNTY 43.74% 43.74% 43.74%43.74%30.98%39.12%44.03%39.56%4.85%
MERCER COUNTY 3.15% 3.15% 3.15%3.15%0.07%0.07%0.66%0.13%0%
LAWRENCE COUNTY 0% 0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
The percentage of each county considered “abnormally dry,” the precursor to a “moderate drought” from the US Drought Monitor, in each of the last nine updates to the map. Scroll the table to the right to view the updates from earlier this year.

How much rain has fallen across the Youngstown area over the last seven days?

At our official climate reporting station, the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport in Vienna, rainfall totaled 0.77″ over the last seven days. That amount fell over a span of three days. A few other areas experienced some heavier downpours with thunderstorms over the past week.

Radar estimates of rainfall as of 3 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 25 for the Youngstown area over the last seven days, valid for the dates Aug. 18 – Aug. 25.

Radar estimates show some a pocket of heavier rain near the southern shore of Mosquito Lake and near Mesopotamia in Trumbull County. Eastern and south-central Columbiana County also experienced some rainfall in recent weeks. But the heavier rain hasn’t been enough to completely wipe away all of the deficits across the area.

What impacts has rainfall over the last week had on rainfall deficits in the Youngstown area?

If you look at the map above showing where some of the heavier rain has fallen over the last week, as expected, you can see that the deficits are not as high in those areas. But places that were drier over the last seven days are approaching rainfall deficits from 1″ to 1.5″. The biggest deficit in rainfall we are seeing currently is around central and western Mahoning County and northern Columbiana County.

Estimated rainfall deficits as of Thursday, Aug. 25 for the Youngstown area over the last 30 days. This is showing areas how much below normal rainfall has been over the previous 30 days.

Another way to look at this data is the percentage of normal rainfall. The image below is showing you areas that have seen above or below the normal rainfall for the last 30 days. Areas receiving normal rain would be right at 100%. Anything above 100% is above normal. Areas below 100% have seen below-normal rainfall over the last 30 days. The majority of our area is running below normal for rainfall.

Estimated percentage of normal rainfall over the last 30 days for the Youngstown area as of Thursday, Aug. 25.

Looking to the stats at the airport, we are also seeing rainfall numbers running below normal. So far this year, there has been 26.35″ of rain at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport. We are currently running below normal by 0.71″ for 2022. When you look at rainfall totals through just meteorological summer (June, July and August) the deficit is much greater. There has been 7.50″ of rain at the airport in Trumbull County since June 1, which is 3.33″ below normal for that timeframe.

2022 rainfall stats at the Youngstown area’s official climate reporting station, the Youngstown/Warren Regional Airport.

Will the Youngstown area see more rain and more improvements in the coming days?

We are tracking the chance for some hit-and-miss rain and storms around the area Friday. It will be “luck of the draw” as to who finds themselves under pockets of moderate to heavier rainfall. Dry conditions are anticipated for the weekend. Another spike in rain chances comes early next week. Both systems we are tracking can bring some beneficial rains but it may not be enough to overcome the drier than average conditions.

Chance of rain in the Youngstown area over the next five days as of Thursday, Aug. 25.

Looking ahead to Thursday’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Aug. 31 – Sept. 4, our area is in the “equal chances” category. That means there isn’t a statistical probability in either direction and we have an equal chance of seeing at, above or below normal precipitation during that timeframe.

6 to 10-day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Wednesday, Aug. 31 – Sunday, Sept. 4.

The 8-14 day climate outlook has a slight leaning toward below-normal precipitation in our region. The dates the outlook is valid for are Sept. 2 – Sept. 8. The Climate Prediction Center places the Youngstown area in the 33% chance of below normal precipitation for that stretch of days. For a look at what to plan for over the next week, check the Storm Team 27 Youngstown area 7-day forecast.

8 to 14-day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, valid for the dates Friday, Sept. 2 – Thursday, Sept. 8.